Is Wonder Really Worth a $9 Billion Valuation? | Fast Five Shorts
Marc Lore says Wonder is preparing to go public after raising $650 million at a $9 billion valuation, despite years of projected losses ahead.
Chris Walton is joined by Alex Brakebill and Brandon Pezely to debate whether Wonder's food hall model can justify its valuation or if investors are buying into another overhyped growth story. They discuss restaurant technology, profitability, food delivery, and what it really takes to scale a food business.
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Transcript
Marc Laurier tells Fortune that his food haul company Wonder is quote, ready and prepared to go public early next year, end quote.
Speaker A: locations since May: Speaker A: billion in cash through: Speaker A:Lori, however, pushed back on this framing, saying the economics are often misunderstood.
Speaker A:You do need to make substantial investment upfront, he said.
Speaker A:The robotics, the ingredient library, all those suppress profitability in the long term, but there's a big prize at the end of the day, end quote.
Speaker A:He also reportedly said same service area sales are growing roughly 20% year over year and that the cost of goods sold is tracking better than planned.
Speaker A:Alex Wonder, is it the idea none of us knew we needed, or is it pure snake oil?
Speaker B:Well, Chris, I have to admit I, I know people that work at Wonder, so I have to be cautious of what I say here.
Speaker B:But I'm more of a skeptic, I think, than a believer in this.
Speaker B:I, I do, I do believe in the underlying fundamental that, you know, the operation of these restaurants is challenging.
Speaker B:If you can get scale there, you can create a lot of profitability.
Speaker B:So I believe in that, in the scale of the ingredients, the scale of the, the actual cooking process, the scale of the marketing delivery, all those pieces.
Speaker B:That all makes sense.
Speaker B:I also know that when I order from, you know, order from UberEats or DoorDash, I only order things I've been to before in person.
Speaker B:And I find these, honestly, these generic food halls to be sort of uninspiring.
Speaker B:So I've been to a few of them in Atlanta.
Speaker B:I probably wouldn't go there unless I had to.
Speaker B:And I'm just a little concerned that it feels a little bit generic and bland versus something that people get excited about.
Speaker B:So there is a market for it.
Speaker B:I just don't think it's the scale of what Mark is saying it is.
Speaker B:That being said, he's a good salesperson.
Speaker B:He sold a couple companies for lots of money.
Speaker B:Those companies don't really exist in the form he sold them in anymore.
Speaker B: So we'll have to see in: Speaker A:Yeah, so there's two point.
Speaker A:There's two parts you bring up there, Alex.
Speaker A:I think that are.
Speaker A:They're interesting.
Speaker A:There's one part which is the food business itself, which, you know, I was looking at it like, you know, $9 billion valuation that seems high for a food business like Wendy's.
Speaker A:$1.4 Billion.
Speaker A:Market cap.
Speaker A:Market cap.
Speaker A:7,300 Stores globally.
Speaker A:Jersey Mike's just IPO today, I think they have over 3,000.
Speaker A:Or they just released their valuation that they're going for with their IPO.
Speaker A:They have over 3,000 stores.
Speaker A:So 9 billion seems really high.
Speaker A:So then you have to say, okay, what else is there?
Speaker A:Well, then there's the whole idea of, like the food super app that you can, you know, order whatever you want on demand, which I like as an idea, but I just don't know that we're at a place yet where we've actually seen that come to fruition because I'm not hearing anyone talk about or use it.
Speaker A:And so the next question I have for you and Brandon, maybe you can jump in here too, given your experience.
Speaker A:I don't want to throw you off too, but like, 20% growth in your same store locations in year, basically.
Speaker A:What's year?
Speaker A:Year two.
Speaker A:That doesn't seem very high to me.
Speaker A:Like, am I.
Speaker A:Am I nuts on that?
Speaker A:That seems really low to me.
Speaker C:No, I completely agree.
Speaker C:When you think, like, a lot of new restaurants, right, that they've opened, like first year comp.
Speaker C:You'd expect, right?
Speaker C:Especially if it's gaining a lot of popularity to be a lot, a lot higher than this.
Speaker C:I mean, I agree with, like, the overall idea, like, being able to go to one place, get a variety of different food.
Speaker C:Like, as a guy with four kids, like, that sounds great.
Speaker C:You know, my kids could get everything they want.
Speaker C:I could get what I want fast Service.
Speaker C:I mean, I just don't know if the technology is there to really support that model.
Speaker C:And then to Alex's point, I mean, if you look at Mark Laurie's history, I mean, like, successful exits with quidsy and with jet.com but a lot of those assets have been written off.
Speaker C:And so I am a bit skeptical in terms of, like, is the.
Speaker C:Is there really technology there?
Speaker C:And, you know, is it advanced enough to roll this out?
Speaker C:And when you start talking about the financials and the economics, I mean, if it looks like it's a bit of a tough road ahead, they'll have to continue to raise money and you know, not profitability for several years.
Speaker C:I feel like it's just a tough spot to be in.
Speaker A:Yeah, and the crazy thing, I mean is these are really smart people that are continuing to invest in this, but yet all three of us are saying like, look at the pattern here.
Speaker A:You've seen kind of the pump, pump up the hype, up the concept and then sell out and then see it go away.
Speaker A:And so are we looking at that again?
Speaker A:I think is a really realistic question that we have to be asking ourselves because yeah, on the software side of things or the technology play here, I just don't get it.
Speaker A:It feels like vaporware to me.
Speaker A:I mean, you know, you're rolling up basically grubhub and a restaurant chain, like that's not all that innovative.
Speaker A:And also like, what's the utility against just using doordash to do what I want anyway?
Speaker A:So like I'm just, I'm just not, I'm not, I'm not seeing it.
Speaker A:I can't, I can't get my head around how it's valued at $9 billion at this point.
Speaker A:And so I feel like at some point somebody's going to be left holding the bag.
Speaker A:But I just, I mean the thing that bothers me about this headline most of all is like, you know, at what point do people realize this and be like, no, Mark, we're not, we're not giving you this, like, we're, we're not let.
Speaker A:Making, we're not making you another multi, multi billionaire off this idea until you show us that you've got an actual sustainable business.
Speaker A:But any one of you guys want the last word on this one?
Speaker B:Look, I'll also throw in, I think the macro fundamentals are interesting because with the expansion of GLP1s, you know, I think people just eating less overall.
Speaker B:And if you're in an industry where you're trying to sell more meals, he said something like, I want 21 meals a week being bought through my store.
Speaker B:You know, I think that's not the case anymore.
Speaker B:And so there's just real macro trends working against him in this industry.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's such a hype sound bite too.
Speaker A:I mean that the point I come back to too is like 20% growth in your same store locations.
Speaker A:Like I just looked, Adidas is doing 20% year over year growth in E commerce.
Speaker A:So like that's nothing comparatively.
Speaker A:Like you should be, you should be growth rate.
Speaker A:What's that?
Speaker B: You're like: Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:It should be, right?
Speaker A:I mean, you guys are consultants.
Speaker A:You see these numbers all the time.
Speaker A:That should be a flag to you.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:All right, well, who knows?
